> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 10 May, 13:00 UTC
Crystal Palace vs Everton
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
46.9% home27.6% draw25.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Crystal PalacestepEverton
1.74Base xG · rolling 26-match1.40
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.88Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.35
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + Over 1.5 Goals + 1X + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 29.9% · @ 3.34x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Crystal Palace 2–2 Everton
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+