FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Crystal Palace 2–2 EvertonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Crystal Palace at 47%, draw at 28%, Everton at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Crystal Palace to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Palace win
47%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
Everton win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.88 – 1.35
Total 3.23
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 48%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.34x
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓