> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Saturday 23 May, 23:30 UTC
D.C. United vs CF Montréal
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
DC United's 0.35 xG edge combined with Montreal's defensive vulnerability makes Over 2.5 Goals the strongest play at 75% probability.
Win probability
42.0% home31.8% draw26.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
D.C. UnitedstepCF Montréal
1.38Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.14
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
D.C. United 4–4 CF Montréal
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+