FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 24 May 2026
D.C. United 4–4 CF MontréalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had D.C. United at 42%, draw at 32%, CF Montréal at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 4-4. The model's headline call was D.C. United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
42%
Draw
32%
Actual ✓
Montréal win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.49 – 1.14
Total 2.63
Actual
4 – 4
Total 8 (+5.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 5.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"DC United's 0.35 xG edge combined with Montreal's defensive vulnerability makes Over 2.5 Goals the strongest play at 75% probability."