> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 09 May, 12:00 UTC
Elche vs Alavés
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
35.9% home28.8% draw35.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ElchestepAlavés
1.48Base xG · rolling 26-match1.65
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.60Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.58
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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7
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3
1
1
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10
8
4
2
1
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8
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1
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2
1
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1
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Over 9.5 Corners + X2 + Over 8.5 SOT
Model 27.9% · @ 3.59x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Elche 1–1 Alavés
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+