FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Elche 1–1 AlavésMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Elche at 36%, draw at 29%, Alavés at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Elche to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Elche win
36%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
Alavés win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.58
Total 3.19
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 40%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.59x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✓
- X2✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✓