> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 23 May, 19:00 UTC
Espanyol vs Real Sociedad
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Real Sociedad's Europa qualification desperation outweighs Espanyol's mid-table apathy, making Over 1.5 Goals the strongest play at 75% probability despite modest xG totals.
Win probability
36.8% home31.3% draw31.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
EspanyolstepReal Sociedad
1.34Base xG · rolling 26-match1.39
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.45Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.33
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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3
4
5
6
0
6
8
6
2
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Espanyol 1–1 Real Sociedad
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+