FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 23 May 2026
Espanyol 1–1 Real SociedadMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 23 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Espanyol at 37%, draw at 31%, Real Sociedad at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Espanyol to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Espanyol win
37%
Draw
31%
Actual ✓
Sociedad win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.33
Total 2.78
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Real Sociedad's Europa qualification desperation outweighs Espanyol's mid-table apathy, making Over 1.5 Goals the strongest play at 75% probability despite modest xG totals."