> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Tuesday 16 Jun, 19:00 UTC
France vs Senegal
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 74% probability because France's 1.67 xG and Senegal's 1.19 create a combined 2.86 expected total that favors goal-heavy outcomes.
Win probability
45.4% home29.8% draw24.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FrancestepSenegal
1.67Base xG · rolling 26-match1.19
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.67Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.19
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
France 3–1 Senegal
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+