FT · World: World Cup · Tuesday, 16 June 2026

France 31 SenegalMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 16 June 2026

France
31
France win
Senegal
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had France at 45%, draw at 30%, Senegal at 25%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward France.

> Pre-match probability vs result
France win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Senegal win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.671.19
Total 2.86
Actual
31
Total 4 (+1.1 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 47%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 74% probability because France's 1.67 xG and Senegal's 1.19 create a combined 2.86 expected total that favors goal-heavy outcomes."

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