> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Premier League·Sunday 24 May, 15:00 UTC
Fulham vs Newcastle United
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Newcastle's marginal xG advantage (1.44 vs 1.33) insufficient to overcome Fulham's home-ground resilience, making the draw the most likely outcome at 31%.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Fulham
Nothing to play for
13th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Away
Newcastle United
Nothing to play for
11th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Win probability
32.1% home31.3% draw36.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
FulhamstepNewcastle United
1.24Base xG · rolling 26-match1.49
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.44
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
9
6
3
1
1
8
12
9
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
2
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Fulham 2–0 Newcastle United
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+