FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Fulham 2–0 Newcastle UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fulham at 32%, draw at 31%, Newcastle United at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-0. The model's headline call was Newcastle United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fulham win
32%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
United win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.33 – 1.44
Total 2.77
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS No
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.12x
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
- 1X✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✗
> What we said pre-match
"Newcastle's marginal xG advantage (1.44 vs 1.33) insufficient to overcome Fulham's home-ground resilience, making the draw the most likely outcome at 31%."