> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 17 May, 10:00 UTC
Genoa vs AC Milan
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
AC Milan's title-race desperation outweighs marginal xG parity; X2 (draw/Milan win) captures 74% probability against Genoa's mid-table apathy.
Win probability
32.2% home32.8% draw35.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GenoastepAC Milan
1.16Base xG · rolling 26-match1.37
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.25Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.32
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
8
10
7
3
1
1
10
13
8
4
1
2
6
8
5
2
1
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3
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Genoa 1–2 AC Milan
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+