FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Genoa 1–2 AC MilanMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Genoa at 32%, draw at 33%, AC Milan at 35%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward AC Milan.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Genoa win
32%
Draw
33%
Milan win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.25 – 1.32
Total 2.57
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 2.84x
- X2✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"AC Milan's title-race desperation outweighs marginal xG parity; X2 (draw/Milan win) captures 74% probability against Genoa's mid-table apathy."