> MATCH.PREDICT()·Spain: La Liga·Saturday 23 May, 19:00 UTC
Getafe vs Osasuna
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Getafe's Europa desperation clashes with Osasuna's complacency in a low-chance affair (2.19 xG) favoring the draw at 36% win probability.
Win probability
30.9% home35.9% draw33.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
GetafestepOsasuna
0.99Base xG · rolling 26-match1.16
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.07Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.12
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
13
7
3
1
1
12
13
8
3
1
2
6
7
4
2
3
2
3
1
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Getafe 1–0 Osasuna
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+