FT · Spain: La Liga · Saturday, 23 May 2026
Getafe 1–0 OsasunaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 23 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Getafe at 31%, draw at 36%, Osasuna at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was a draw.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
31%
Actual ✓
Draw
36%
Osasuna win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.07 – 1.12
Total 2.19
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.16x
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- 1X✓
> What we said pre-match
"Getafe's Europa desperation clashes with Osasuna's complacency in a low-chance affair (2.19 xG) favoring the draw at 36% win probability."