> MATCH.PREDICT()·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Monday 11 May, 19:15 UTC
Gil Vicente vs Arouca
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Gil Vicente's 0.80 xG advantage and 53% win probability justify backing home victory at 55% odds despite modest motivation context.
Win probability
53.0% home26.9% draw20.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Gil VicentestepArouca
1.81Base xG · rolling 26-match1.19
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.95Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.15
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + 1X + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals
Model 35.4% · @ 2.82x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Gil Vicente 1–3 Arouca
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+