FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 11 May 2026
Gil Vicente 1–3 AroucaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 11 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Gil Vicente at 53%, draw at 27%, Arouca at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Gil Vicente to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Vicente win
53%
Draw
27%
Arouca win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.95 – 1.15
Total 3.10
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.82x
- Over 22.5 Shots✓
- 1X✗
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Gil Vicente's 0.80 xG advantage and 53% win probability justify backing home victory at 55% odds despite modest motivation context."