> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Sunday 14 Jun, 01:00 UTC
Haiti vs Scotland
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 70% probability because Haiti and Scotland combine for just 2.61 expected goals in a fixture where neither side dominates—the 0.25 xG gap leaves room for both to contribute.
Win probability
28.1% home32.2% draw39.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
HaitistepScotland
1.09Base xG · rolling 26-match1.49
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.18Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.43
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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11
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
1 pickProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Haiti 0–1 Scotland
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+