Bawler / Haiti vs Scotland / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Sunday, 14 June 2026

Haiti 0–1 ScotlandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 14 June 2026

Haiti
0–1
Scotland win
Scotland
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Haiti at 28%, draw at 32%, Scotland at 40%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Scotland.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Haiti win
28%
Draw
32%
Scotland win
40%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.18 – 1.43
Total 2.61
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.6 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 70%
✗ Lost
Value
1X
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
Bawl OutMixed@ 3.15x
  • Under 10.5 Corners–
  • Over 1.5 Goals✗
  • X2✓
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 70% probability because Haiti and Scotland combine for just 2.61 expected goals in a fixture where neither side dominates—the 0.25 xG gap leaves room for both to contribute."

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