> MATCH.PREDICT()·SCOTLAND: Premiership - Championship Group·Monday 04 May, 16:30 UTC
Hearts vs Rangers
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
43.6% home30.4% draw26.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
HeartsstepRangers
1.34Base xG · rolling 26-match1.09
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.44Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.05
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
12
13
7
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 5.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 23.1% · @ 4.33x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Hearts 2–1 Rangers
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+