FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership - Championship Group · Monday, 04 May 2026
Hearts 2–1 RangersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 04 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Hearts at 44%, draw at 30%, Rangers at 26%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Hearts.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hearts win
44%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
Rangers win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.05
Total 2.50
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 4.33x
- 1X✓
- Over 5.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓