> MATCH.PREDICT()·Netherlands: Eredivisie·Sunday 17 May, 12:30 UTC
Heerenveen vs Ajax Amsterdam
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Heerenveen's xG advantage (1.68 vs 1.42) and 46% home win value outweigh Ajax's recent form, making the underdog pick compelling despite narrow win probability.
Win probability
41.1% home29.0% draw29.9% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
HeerenveenstepAjax Amsterdam
1.56Base xG · rolling 26-match1.47
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.68Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.42
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
5
2
1
1
8
11
8
4
1
2
6
9
6
3
1
3
4
5
4
2
1
4
2
2
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Heerenveen 0–0 Ajax Amsterdam
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+