FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Heerenveen 0–0 Ajax AmsterdamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Heerenveen at 41%, draw at 29%, Ajax Amsterdam at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Heerenveen to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Heerenveen win
41%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
Amsterdam win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.68 – 1.42
Total 3.10
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✗ Lost
Value
Home Win
Pre-match: 46%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.64x
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Heerenveen's xG advantage (1.68 vs 1.42) and 46% home win value outweigh Ajax's recent form, making the underdog pick compelling despite narrow win probability."