> MATCH.PREDICT()·GERMANY: Bundesliga·Saturday 02 May, 13:30 UTC
Hoffenheim vs Stuttgart
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
40.0% home24.6% draw35.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
HoffenheimstepStuttgart
1.79Base xG · rolling 26-match1.88
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.93Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.81
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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8
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6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 8.5 Corners + Over 8.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 26.3% · @ 3.80x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Hoffenheim 3–3 Stuttgart
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+