FT · GERMANY: Bundesliga · Saturday, 02 May 2026
Hoffenheim 3–3 StuttgartMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 02 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Hoffenheim at 40%, draw at 25%, Stuttgart at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-3. The model's headline call was Hoffenheim to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hoffenheim win
40%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Stuttgart win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.93 – 1.81
Total 3.74
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 89%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.80x
- 1X✓
- Over 8.5 Corners✓
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✓