> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Championship·Saturday 23 May, 14:30 UTC
Hull City vs Middlesbrough
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Middlesbrough's 0.35 xG advantage combined with 42% win probability makes their draw-or-win outcome the only profitable play despite Hull's home status.
Win probability
26.5% home31.4% draw42.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Hull CitystepMiddlesbrough
1.08Base xG · rolling 26-match1.58
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.17Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.52
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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10
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12
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Hull City 1–0 Middlesbrough
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+