FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 23 May 2026
Hull City 1–0 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 23 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Hull City at 27%, draw at 31%, Middlesbrough at 42%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Middlesbrough to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
27%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Middlesbrough win
42%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.17 – 1.52
Total 2.69
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
Value
1X
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Middlesbrough's 0.35 xG advantage combined with 42% win probability makes their draw-or-win outcome the only profitable play despite Hull's home status."