> MATCH.PREDICT()·England: Championship·Friday 08 May, 19:00 UTC
Hull City vs Millwall
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
29.0% home27.2% draw43.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Hull CitystepMillwall
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.95
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.51Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.88
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 22.5 Shots + X2 + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 34.4% · @ 2.91x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Hull City 0–0 Millwall
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+