FT · England: Championship · Friday, 08 May 2026
Hull City 0–0 MillwallMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 08 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Hull City at 29%, draw at 27%, Millwall at 44%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Millwall to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
29%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Millwall win
44%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.88
Total 3.39
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Value
1X
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.91x
- Over 22.5 Shots✗
- X2✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✗