Bawler / ENGLAND: Championship / Millwall
Team profile

Millwall Prediction

Per-game numbers from 50 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
13.0
a game
12.5 faced
On target
4.1
a game
3.8 faced
Goals
1.3 – 1.0
scored – conceded
a game, 50 matches
Next match
48%
Millwall win chance
vs Norwich · Sat 22 Aug 11:30

Millwall prediction: for Millwall's next match — Millwall vs Norwich on Saturday 22 Aug, 11:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it a Millwall win looks most likely (48%).

Millwall sit close to the Championship average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.41 expected goals a game and conceding 1.44. Their finishing has lagged the chances they make — 1.00 goals a game against 1.41 expected. Next up is Norwich City, where the model has them narrowly ahead at 48%.

Millwall in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.3
Goals · per game
let in 1.0
Home 1.4Away 1.3
5.6
Corners · per game
give up 5.4
Home 6.2Away 5.1
13.0
Shots · per game
faced 12.5
Home 13.5Away 12.5
4.1
On target · per game
faced 3.8
Home 4.6Away 3.6
Last 6 games
15 Aug
2-0
@ Bristol City
6-6
08 Aug
1-1
@ QPR
1-6
11 May
0-2
vs Hull
6-8
08 May
0-0
@ Hull
5-0
02 May
2-0
vs Oxford Utd
14-1
24 Apr
1-1
@ Leicester
12-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Home vs Norwich · Saturday 22 Aug, 11:30 UTC

Win
48%
Millwall
Draw
30%
Loss
22%
Norwich
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Millwall compare with the ENGLAND: Championship average, per match.

Goals for
1.41
Above average
Goals against
1.44
Leakier than most
Record
2W 3D 2L
7 settled
Real goals
1.0 – 1.0
For / against, per match
Scored1.41
Conceded1.44

The grey line on each bar is the ENGLAND: Championship average (1.27 scored, 1.28 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.44 xG per match · +0.17 vs league average of 1.28.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 80% of the time on Millwall fixtures (4/5).

How Bawler has done on Millwall

71%
of high-confidence calls correct — 5 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)80%4/5
Result50%1/2

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 7)

Sat 15 Aug@ Bristol City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 08 Aug@ Queens Park Rangers
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 11 Mayvs Hull City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 08 May@ Hull City
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Mon 06 Aprvs Norwich
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Fri 03 Apr@ Middlesbrough
High confidence: 1X
Sat 21 Mar@ Ipswich
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INMathis ServaisDMfrom KV Mechelen€6m
INTaïryk ArconteSTfrom Rodez€3m
INMark SykesRWBfrom Free agentFree transfer
INJenson MetcalfeDMfrom Bradford CityUndisclosed
INLyndon DykesSTfrom Charlton AthleticUndisclosed
INElkan BaggottCBfrom Ipswich TownUndisclosed
INDanny BatthCBfrom Free agentFree transfer
OUTBilly MitchellDMto Sheffield WednesdayFree transfer
OUTDan McNamaraRBto Free agentUndisclosed
OUTAdam MayorLWto HibernianFree transfer
OUTMacaulay LangstaffAMto Salford CityUndisclosed
OUTWes HardingLBto Plymouth ArgyleFree transfer
OUTKamarl GrantCBto BromleyLoan
OUTBarry BannanCMto Sheffield WednesdayUndisclosed
OUTAlfie MasseyCMto Southend UnitedLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Millwall and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly