> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Tuesday 16 Jun, 22:00 UTC
Iraq vs Norway
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals projects at 71% because Iraq (1.23 xG) and Norway (1.46 xG) combine for 2.69 expected goals in a fixture where Haaland's 30% of Norway's attacking load meets Hussein and Ali's combined 34% share for Iraq at home.
Win probability
28.9% home31.7% draw39.4% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
IraqstepNorway
1.23Base xG · rolling 26-match1.46
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.23Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.46
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Iraq 1–4 Norway
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+