Bawler / Iraq vs Norway / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Tuesday, 16 June 2026

Iraq 1–4 NorwayMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 16 June 2026

Iraq
1–4
Norway win
Norway
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Iraq at 29%, draw at 32%, Norway at 39%. The match ended 1-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Norway.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Iraq win
29%
Draw
32%
Norway win
39%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.23 – 1.46
Total 2.69
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.3 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals projects at 71% because Iraq (1.23 xG) and Norway (1.46 xG) combine for 2.69 expected goals in a fixture where Haaland's 30% of Norway's attacking load meets Hussein and Ali's combined 34% share for Iraq at home."

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