> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 17 May, 10:00 UTC
Juventus vs Fiorentina
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Juventus's Champions League desperation heavily outweighs Fiorentina's survival fight, making 1X at 72% the strongest play despite modest xG separation.
Win probability
48.3% home29.6% draw22.1% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
JuventusstepFiorentina
1.57Base xG · rolling 26-match1.14
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.70Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.10
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
1
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 7.5 SOT + Under 10.5 Corners + 1X + Over 1.5 Goals
Model 32.7% · @ 3.05x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Juventus 0–2 Fiorentina
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+