FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 17 May 2026
Juventus 0–2 FiorentinaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 17 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Juventus at 48%, draw at 30%, Fiorentina at 22%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Juventus to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Juventus win
48%
Draw
30%
Fiorentina win
22%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.70 – 1.10
Total 2.80
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 48%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.05x
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Under 10.5 Corners✓
- 1X✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✓
> What we said pre-match
"Juventus's Champions League desperation heavily outweighs Fiorentina's survival fight, making 1X at 72% the strongest play despite modest xG separation."