> MATCH.PREDICT()·ITALY: Serie A·Sunday 03 May, 16:00 UTC
Juventus vs Verona
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
70.8% home20.9% draw8.3% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
JuventusstepVerona
1.92Base xG · rolling 26-match0.57
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.07Final λ — what the Poisson uses0.55
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
4
1
1
15
8
2
2
16
9
2
3
11
6
2
4
6
3
1
5
2
1
6
1
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Home Win + Over 7.5 Corners + Over 7.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 10.4% · @ 9.61x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Juventus 1–1 Verona
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+