FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 03 May 2026
Juventus 1–1 VeronaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Juventus at 71%, draw at 21%, Verona at 8%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Juventus to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Juventus win
71%
Draw
21%
Actual ✓
Verona win
8%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.07 – 0.55
Total 2.62
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
1X
Pre-match: 92%
✓ Won
Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 9.61x
- Home Win✗
- Over 7.5 Corners✓
- Over 7.5 SOT✓
- Over 2.5 Goals✗