> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Sunday 10 May, 11:30 UTC
KAA Gent vs Anderlecht
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
42.7% home25.8% draw31.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
KAA GentstepAnderlecht
1.85Base xG · rolling 26-match1.78
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.00Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.71
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
KAA Gent 1–1 Anderlecht
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+