FT · Belgium: Pro League · Sunday, 10 May 2026
KAA Gent 1–1 AnderlechtMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had KAA Gent at 43%, draw at 26%, Anderlecht at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was KAA Gent to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Gent win
43%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Anderlecht win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.00 – 1.71
Total 3.71
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Value
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 46%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.68x
- Over 2.5 Goals✗
- Over 10.5 Corners✗
- 1X✓