> MATCH.PREDICT()·Belgium: Pro League·Thursday 21 May, 18:30 UTC
KAA Gent vs Union St.-Gilloise
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Union's league-leading status and 43% win probability justify backing away victory despite Gent's home advantage, as the xG differential (1.86–1.55) favors the visitor.
Win probability
30.0% home27.2% draw42.8% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
KAA GentstepUnion St.-Gilloise
1.43Base xG · rolling 26-match1.94
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.55Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.86
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
KAA Gent 0–0 Union St.-Gilloise
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+