FT · Belgium: Pro League · Thursday, 21 May 2026
KAA Gent 0–0 Union St.-GilloiseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 21 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had KAA Gent at 30%, draw at 27%, Union St.-Gilloise at 43%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Union St.-Gilloise to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Gent win
30%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
St.-Gilloise win
43%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.86
Total 3.41
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Value
1X
Pre-match: 49%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Union's league-leading status and 43% win probability justify backing away victory despite Gent's home advantage, as the xG differential (1.86–1.55) favors the visitor."