> MATCH.PREDICT()·USA: MLS·Sunday 03 May, 02:30 UTC
LA Galaxy vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
15.8% home24.6% draw59.7% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LA GalaxystepVancouver Whitecaps
0.82Base xG · rolling 26-match2.02
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.88Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.95
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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11
11
7
4
1
1
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10
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6
3
1
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2
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3
1
1
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1
1
1
1
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Away Win + Over 9.5 Corners + Over 10.5 SOT + Over 2.5 Goals
Model 18.4% · @ 5.45x
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LA Galaxy 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+