FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 03 May 2026
LA Galaxy 1–1 Vancouver WhitecapsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 03 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had LA Galaxy at 16%, draw at 25%, Vancouver Whitecaps at 60%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Vancouver Whitecaps to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Galaxy win
16%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Whitecaps win
60%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.88 – 1.95
Total 2.83
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 5.45x
- Away Win✗
- Over 9.5 Corners✗
- Over 10.5 SOT✗
- Over 2.5 Goals✗