> MATCH.PREDICT()·France: Ligue 1·Sunday 10 May, 19:00 UTC
Le Havre AC vs Marseille
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
31.6% home26.9% draw41.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
Le Havre ACstepMarseille
1.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.95
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.62Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.87
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
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6
0
3
6
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1
1
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9
9
5
3
1
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7
7
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2
1
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4
2
1
4
1
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2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Le Havre AC 0–1 Marseille
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+