FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 10 May 2026
Le Havre AC 0–1 MarseilleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 10 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Le Havre AC at 32%, draw at 27%, Marseille at 42%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Marseille.
> Pre-match probability vs result
AC win
32%
Draw
27%
Marseille win
42%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.62 – 1.87
Total 3.49
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Value
Away Win
Pre-match: 46%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 2.13x
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- X2✓
- Over 9.5 Corners✗