> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Sunday 24 May, 18:45 UTC
Lecce vs Genoa
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Lecce's relegation desperation drives Over 1.5 Goals at 78% despite balanced xG, as survival-mode intensity guarantees attacking commitment.
▲End-of-season stakes
Home
Lecce
Fighting to stay up
17th · 1 pts clear of drop · 1 left
Model nudged xG by +4.5% for motivation
Away
Genoa
Nothing to play for
15th · 1 left
Model nudged xG by −5% for motivation
Win probability
29.2% home34.6% draw36.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LeccestepGenoa
1.01Base xG · rolling 26-match1.28
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.09Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.24
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
12
7
3
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
6
7
4
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Lecce 1–0 Genoa
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+