FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 24 May 2026
Lecce 1–0 GenoaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 24 May 2026
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lecce at 29%, draw at 35%, Genoa at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Genoa to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lecce win
29%
Actual ✓
Draw
35%
Genoa win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.09 – 1.24
Total 2.32
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✗ Lost
Value
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Home Win
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Lecce's relegation desperation drives Over 1.5 Goals at 78% despite balanced xG, as survival-mode intensity guarantees attacking commitment."