Bawler / Italy: Serie A / Lecce
Team profile

Lecce Prediction

Per-game numbers from 38 competitive matches · updated 16 August 2026

Shots
9.8
a game
12.7 faced
On target
2.5
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
0.7 – 1.3
scored – conceded
a game, 38 matches
Next match
26%
Lecce win chance
at Venezia · Sun 23 Aug 16:30

Lecce prediction: for Lecce's next match — Venezia vs Lecce on Sunday 23 Aug, 16:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Venezia are favoured (44%).

Lecce sit close to the Serie A average on both sides of the ball, creating 0.98 expected goals a game and conceding 1.44. Next up is a trip to Venezia, where the model has them as underdogs at 26%.

Lecce in numbers

38 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
0.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.3
Home 0.7Away 0.8
4.3
Corners · per game
give up 5.3
Home 4.2Away 4.4
9.8
Shots · per game
faced 12.7
Home 10.6Away 9.0
2.5
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 2.8Away 2.3
Last 6 games
24 May
1-0
vs Genoa
1-6
17 May
3-2
@ Sassuolo
8-2
09 May
0-1
vs Juventus
1-7
01 May
2-1
@ Pisa
1-6
25 Apr
0-0
@ Verona
4-2
20 Apr
1-1
vs Fiorentina
5-2

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Venezia · Sunday 23 Aug, 16:30 UTC

Win
26%
Lecce
Draw
30%
Loss
44%
Venezia
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Lecce compare with the Italy: Serie A average, per match.

Goals for
0.98
Below average
Goals against
1.44
Leakier than most
Record
2W 0D 3L
5 settled
Real goals
0.8 – 1.4
For / against, per match
Scored0.98
Conceded1.44

The grey line on each bar is the Italy: Serie A average (1.24 scored, 1.32 conceded).

What the data says
Misfiring in attack
Averaging 0.98 xG per match · -0.27 above the Italy: Serie A average of 1.24.
Model is strongest on: Result
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 75% of the time on Lecce fixtures (3/4).

How Bawler has done on Lecce

60%
of high-confidence calls correct — 3 of 5
Result75%3/4

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 5)

Sun 24 Mayvs Genoa
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 17 May@ Sassuolo
High confidence: 1X
Sat 09 Mayvs Juventus
High confidence: X2
Mon 06 Aprvs Atalanta
High confidence: X2
Sun 22 Mar@ AS Roma
High confidence: 1X

Transfer activity

INWillem GeubbelsSTfrom Paris FC€5m
OUTFilip MarchwinskiLWto CracoviaLoan
OUTThórir HelgasonCMto VeneziaFree transfer
OUTChristian FrüchtlGKto Salzburg€1m
OUTYlber RamadaniDMto Corum FK€1m
OUTÁlex SalaCMto MallorcaLoan
OUTMatías PérezCBto La SerenaLoan
OUTJasper Samoojato HJKLoan
OUTMarco Delle MonacheLWto PinetoLoan

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Lecce and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly