> MATCH.PREDICT()·Italy: Serie A·Saturday 09 May, 18:45 UTC
Lecce vs Juventus
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
19.9% home28.1% draw52.0% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
LeccestepJuventus
1.00Base xG · rolling 26-match1.91
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.08Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.84
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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10
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11
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1
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 8.5 Corners + Over 1.5 Goals + Over 8.5 SOT + Away Win
Model 20.5% · @ 4.87x
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⚡ Full-time recap available
Lecce 0–1 Juventus
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+