FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 09 May 2026
Lecce 0–1 JuventusMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 09 May 2026
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lecce at 20%, draw at 28%, Juventus at 52%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Juventus.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lecce win
20%
Draw
28%
Juventus win
52%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.08 – 1.84
Total 2.92
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
X2
Pre-match: 88%
✓ Won
Value
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 4.87x
- Over 8.5 Corners✗
- Over 1.5 Goals✗
- Over 8.5 SOT✓
- Away Win✓